Law enforcement activity has been a “key factor” in reducing the number of small boat Channel crossings, the National Crime Agency (NCA) says.
The number of people arriving in the UK in the first half of 2026 was down 41% on the year before, government figures show.
The NCA said the drop followed a “significant increase in arrests and seizures”, although added “fluctuating demand” for crossings, and the French authorities preventing boat launches had also played a role.
However, Mihnea Cuibus, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, says it is “impossible” to disentangle the effects of government policy and other factors on small boat arrivals.
While recent policy changes appear to have led smugglers and migrants to alter their behaviour, Cuibus says fewer unauthorised arrivals into the EU and developments in key origin countries – such as improved security in Syria – may be partially behind the decline.
“It is hard to know how much restrictive measures contributed to reducing [arrivals] in 2026,” he continues.
He said limitations on refugee family reunion and a reduction in the asylum grant rate could also have had an impact.
The Conservatives have previously said the weather played a huge role in the fluctuating numbers of crossings from France and Belgium.
NCA director general of operations Rob Jones said the agency was “devoting more resources to tackling organised immigration crime than ever before”.
“That is bringing results.
“However, we are not complacent, and the job is by no means done,” he continued.
“We must continue to keep up the pressure on these criminal gangs, as they continue to put lives at risk in the Channel.”
