Global security consequences
The U.S. decline forms part of a broader democratic recession.
In 2025, 98 of 173 countries — 57 percent — declined in at least one democratic factor over five years according to the report, while only 55 improved. It was the 11th consecutive year in which more countries saw their democratic performance deteriorate than advance. The U.S. is not an isolated case, but its size and influence make its decline especially consequential.
IDEA’s central warning is that democratic erosion is also a security problem. The world recorded 65 violent conflicts in 2025, the highest number since 1946, including a record eight conflicts between countries. The report says hybrid political systems, where democratic procedures exist but political competition and enforceable rights are weak, have been involved in conflict more often than either fully authoritarian systems or well-functioning democracies. “It is the low-performing democracies that are in this really tricky spot where conditions for conflict are more likely,” Casas-Zamora said.
Casas-Zamora pointed to Russia as a tangible example. “I have to think that a fully democratic Russia, with checks and balances, with freedom of the press, with civil society organizations able to organize themselves and hold public officials to account, would not have invaded Ukraine. It’s plain as that,” he added.
Europe still leads the democratic rankings, but it recorded 77 declines against 42 advances between 2020 and 2025. Civil liberties, access to justice and credible elections were among the areas under greatest pressure.
Germany offered a fresh illustration of that strain earlier this month, when the far-right Alternative for Germany won 43.8 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its 2021 result. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU fell to 17.2 percent, its worst-ever result in the eastern state, leaving mainstream parties scrambling to explain the AfD’s rise and keep it from power.
