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As TV monitors at a primary night watch party showed state Rep. Francesca Hong leading the Democratic race for governor in Dane County, the crowd erupted in cheers.
But this wasn’t Hong’s event in Madison. It was the party for Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany at the Rustic Manor wedding barn in Hartland.
Attendees saw a Hong victory as a path to take back the governor’s office, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has blocked conservative bills for nearly eight years. In recent weeks, Tiffany and fellow Republicans attacked Hong over past social media posts, including calls to abolish the U.S. Senate, defund police and cancel Thanksgiving. They saw the posts as signs Hong would be a weak general election opponent.
“We’re hoping that Hong will win the primaries because what she says is just outright insanity,” 19-year-old Tiffany campaign worker Ellie Guida said.
Instead, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley eked out a comeback victory to win the Democratic nomination.
And now a new poll shows why Republicans have reason to worry.
Crowley led Tiffany 48% to 44% in a new Badger Battleground Poll conducted Aug. 12 and 13 by Platform Communications. Crowley also led 42% to 30% among independents and 54% to 35% in competitive Assembly districts.
Tiffany was viewed unfavorably by 43% of poll respondents, compared with 26% with an unfavorable view of Crowley, with 31% lacking a solid opinion of Crowley. The margin of error was 4.4 percentage points, and the poll was conducted via landline and cell phone interviews.
Still, even attendees at Crowley’s watch party in Milwaukee raised concerns about whether he can persuade Hong voters to support him in the general election.
Keith Schmitz, leader of the suburban Milwaukee progressive group Grassroots North Shore, said Hong’s supporters are more likely to back Crowley if Hong strongly endorses him. He expects Democrats to unify around beating Tiffany.
Crowley’s win reshapes the race for Wisconsin Democrats and Republicans. The three gubernatorial candidates who lost the primary joined top Democrats, including U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan and Attorney General Josh Kaul at a breakfast Wednesday in Middleton with Crowley and Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Sarah Godlewski in a show of unity.
Tiffany began a “Common-Sense Leadership Tour” in Green Bay Wednesday with Republican lieutenant governor nominee David Varnam and Attorney General nominee Eric Toney.
Brandon Scholz, former chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin and now an independent political analyst, highlighted how facing Crowley instead of Hong changes the challenge for Tiffany. He pointed to Crowley being “more measured in his responses and comments,” along with his more moderate positions.
“It will be hard, I think, for Tiffany to do the damage to Crowley that he could have done to Hong,” Scholz said.
Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said he expects Tiffany to portray Crowley as a “far-left liberal who has demonstrated shortcomings in his position in Milwaukee.”
Right on cue, Tiffany released a statement and ad Wednesday responding to Crowley’s primary win. Tiffany claimed there was no difference between Crowley and “a socialist.” The ad highlighted Milwaukee County budget deficits under Crowley and suggested that portended mismanagement, higher prices and increased taxes if he became governor.
In response, a Crowley spokesperson said Tiffany was in “meltdown mode” as he prepared to face Crowley. The spokesperson called the attack “a desperate effort to distract from his own extreme record of voting 100% of the time to advance Donald Trump’s extreme MAGA agenda.”
The statement said Crowley lowered property taxes and created new jobs, and criticized Tiffany’s support for Trump’s tariffs and his missed votes on a bipartisan bill aiming to lower housing costs.
Here is what else we learned from Wisconsin’s partisan primary and how it sets up the road to the Nov. 3 election.
Undecided voters broke for Crowley
As Crowley looks to unify Democrats, the 40-year-old may need to shore up support among younger voters.
The Marquette Law School Poll showed 66% of voters ages 18 to 29 supported Hong, while election results showed she led in 10 of the 13 counties with University of Wisconsin campuses.
Polling showed Crowley with more support among older voters and people living in rural counties. Crowley led Hong by half a percentage point statewide, but his margin widened to 4 percentage points in rural counties, according to a New York Times analysis. Hong’s lack of spending on broadcast TV ads may have contributed to her weaker performance among older and rural voters.
The last Marquette Poll before the primary found 34% of Democratic primary voters were undecided — a dynamic Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin said benefited Crowley.
“The fact that so many undecideds apparently coalesce on Crowley is an important lesson that undecideds really can make up their mind in a lopsided way,” Franklin said.
Older people and moderates likely fueled Crowley’s late surge, according to Franklin.
Franklin said older voters don’t usually wait to decide, but this year they did, potentially helping Crowley. Older people also vote more than younger people. He also noted how moderate voters were initially undecided, helping Crowley.
Many people don’t tune in to primaries until a few weeks before voting, Franklin added. He pointed to Evers’ endorsement late in the race. In the last Marquette Poll before the election. 36% of Democratic primary voters said Evers’ endorsement mattered to them.
“It’s obvious that a lot of those late deciders did go to Crowley, overwhelmingly. It just took them till the last week or so of the campaign to decide to do that, or even on Election Day,” Franklin said.
The next Marquette Poll is scheduled for release by the end of August. The first Marquette Poll after the 2018 primary showed Evers and incumbent Gov. Scott Walker tied, but Evers went on to win by 1 percentage point. That election came during Trump’s first midterm cycle.
Evers’ job approval rating stood at 51% in a July 22 Marquette Poll, and Franklin said the poll showed Evers remained popular with Democratic primary voters.
This was the first time in more than 50 years that a sitting Wisconsin governor endorsed a candidate.
“Governor Evers’ endorsement proved to be the key factor in this election,” Chergosky said. “It’s a great reminder that endorsements can make a huge difference in primary elections.”
Two GOP-endorsed candidates lose statewide races
The state Republican Party suffered two more setbacks Tuesday as party-endorsed candidates lost statewide races.
The party endorsed consultant Will Martin — a staffer under former Govs. Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker — for lieutenant governor, but stay-at-home dad and former Lancaster mayor David Varnam secured the Republican nomination by 11 percentage points.
The party also backed beef farmer and auctioneer Nate Pollnow for secretary of state. He lost to real estate investor Jay Schroeder by more than 20 percentage points. Schroeder said he would make the secretary of state Wisconsin’s chief election official and abolish the Wisconsin Elections Commission — something that would require legislative action. Republicans skeptical of the 2020 election results have rallied against the WEC in recent years, which may explain Schroeder’s appeal among primary voters.
The secretary of state keeps track of enrolled laws, resolutions, official acts, fees, positions and appointments, but generally attracts little notice.
While both secretary of state candidates aligned with Trump, Schroeder more heavily emphasized his support for Trump’s movement.
Martin’s lieutenant governor campaign website focused largely on developing energy resources and protecting public safety. Varnam focused on immigration and cutting taxes — issues that ranked as more important among Republican voters surveyed in the Marquette poll earlier this year.
Scholz said the endorsed candidates’ losses raise questions about the state party’s role in elections.
“Does Wisconsin have a viable state party organization that can contribute?” Scholz asked. “And I’m not talking about getting $9 million of contributions from (billionaire GOP megadonors Richard and Liz) Uihlein and (Diane) Hendricks and then pushing them through to campaigns. That’s not a state party.”
The state GOP didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Congressional races set
U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden and 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke face each other again in the 3rd Congressional District.
Cooke lost to Van Orden in 2024 by 3 percentage points. She ran in the Democratic primary for the district in 2022 but lost to state Sen. Brad Pfaff, D-Onalaska.
Van Orden beat Pfaff to flip the seat in 2022 and has held it for two terms. This year marks the first time Van Orden will run for reelection with a Republican president in office.
Van Orden first ran for the seat in 2020 and lost by just under 3 percentage points as Democrat Joe Biden carried Wisconsin. In 2022, when Republicans took back the House, Van Orden won by nearly 4 percentage points.
Chergosky said Van Orden, a close Trump ally, must rally MAGA supporters, who can be more difficult to turn out during a midterm election.
“There are many voters who eagerly show up to vote for Trump, but aren’t as excited to vote when he’s not on the ballot,” Chergosky said.
Cooke enters the rematch with higher name recognition and national endorsements from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin. She also has outraised Van Orden by $1 million.
The 7th Congressional District, which Tiffany is vacating, will likely stay Republican, Chergosky said. Michael Alfonso, son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, won the Republican nomination.
Backed by Trump, Alfonso defeated runner-up Kevin Hermening, by 22 percentage points.
“His victory shows the power of the Trump endorsement in Republican primaries,” Chergosky said.
Alfonso will face Democratic Rep. Fred Clark.
Republicans have held onto the northern Wisconsin district since 2011 when Duffy was elected.
Emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman won the Democratic nomination in the 1st Congressional District and will face Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil. Berman defeated the runner up Peter Burgelis by nearly 23 percentage points after Burgelis ended his campaign to endorse Berman in July.
National Democrats are targeting this seat as they seek to win control of the House. But Steil had more than 35 times the cash on hand as the Democratic primary challengers combined as of July. Chergosky also said Steil has a well-developed brand in his southeastern Wisconsin district, giving him the advantage.
For Berman to defeat Steil, Chergosky said he’ll need to raise money quickly and increase his name recognition.
Legislative Democrats play it safe
Democrats have a shot at winning control of the Legislature for the first time in 16 years. Doing so would require flipping two Senate seats and five Assembly seats. In three districts Wisconsin Watch monitored, Democratic voters chose familiar faces in the primary.
In the 17th Senate District, Rep. Jenna Jacobson, D-Oregon, will face incumbent Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green.
Jacobson, endorsed by the State Senate Democratic Committee, won the primary by nearly 30 percentage points over former New Glarus School Board member Corrine Hendrickson, who focused on funding public schools and child care. Jacobson has served in the Assembly since 2022.
Kamala Harris won the district in the 2024 presidential race when Marklein, a co-chair of the powerful Joint Finance Committee, was not up for reelection.
In the 21st Assembly District, Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz defeated David Liners for the Democratic nomination.
Bukiewicz has served as mayor of Oak Creek, which the district encompasses, since 2017. But Republicans have held the seat since 2003.
Liners ran as a democratic socialist, but he hadn’t previously held office. Bukiewicz benefited from strong name recognition and high-profile endorsements like U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
Democratic strategist and former Evers staffer Melissa Baldauff said Democrats want candidates they can trust, rather than unknowns.
“There’s definitely something to be said for voting for a known entity,” Baldauff said.
Another democratic socialist, Rep. Ryan Clancy, D-Milwaukee, will likely keep his 19th Assembly District seat after defeating the more moderate Bridget Maniaci in the Democratic primary.
Maniaci criticized Clancy for what she said was failed legislation and unleveraged resources. She outraised him by $2,000.
While other democratic socialists, including Liners and Hong, lost their elections, Clancy won by nearly 9 percentage points. Chergosky said it’s because his constituents know his record.
“In Clancy’s heavily Democratic district, voters may be comfortable supporting an outspoken democratic socialist whose record they already know,” Chergosky said. “In a statewide race for governor, voters may place much greater emphasis on who they believe can defeat the Republican nominee in November.”
Chergosky said each Assembly district is unique, and many are “ideologically homogeneous.” He said voters in an urban, heavily Democratic Assembly district may be more receptive to a candidate like Clancy than voters in a statewide race, where candidates must appeal to urban, suburban and rural voters.
‘A referendum on President Trump’
Democrats cast substantially more primary votes than Republicans, a trend that could shape the outcomes in November, especially as Trump’s approval ratings decline.
Democrats cast nearly 800,000 votes, compared with nearly 500,000 votes from Republicans.
Meanwhile, nine Republicans are retiring from the Legislature this election cycle, including Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg.
Political science experts have said these retirements come during an expected Democratic surge. Wisconsin’s legislative maps were redrawn in February 2024 after experts described the previous maps as some of the most gerrymandered in the country. In November 2024, Democrats flipped 14 legislative seats.
In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris won Assembly Districts 61, 21 and 51 — three districts Democrats aim to flip this November.
Republicans have held each seat for more than a decade, but the incumbents won by just 3 percentage points in 2024.
While Assembly Districts 51 and 61 still have incumbents, Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, is retiring from her 21st Assembly District seat. Republican nominee Dylan Pfaffenbach, a Carroll University student, will face Bukiewicz, the more experienced Democrat.
The party controlling the White House, Chergosky said, notoriously faces headwinds in midterm elections. Tracking Trump’s approval rate will be key to predicting outcomes. The new Platform Communications poll found 30% of respondents had a favorable view and 66% had an unfavorable view of Trump.
“For Democrats, the playbook is clear: Frame this election as a referendum on President Trump,” Chergosky said.
Tom Kertscher and Brittany Carloni contributed reporting.
Poll: Democrat David Crowley opens fall gubernatorial campaign with slight edge over Republican Tom Tiffany is a post from Wisconsin Watch, a non-profit investigative news site covering Wisconsin since 2009. Please consider making a contribution to support our journalism.
